Speaking to analysts on 13 February, Air France-KLM CEO Benjamin Smith cautioned that the bloc’s RefuelEU Aviation regulation could force the group to slash up to 45 percent of its Asia network—including many China services—by 2030. The rules compel EU carriers to blend 6 percent sustainable-aviation fuel (SAF) from 2030, rising to 20 percent by 2035, while non-EU airlines operating via hubs in the Gulf or Türkiye avoid most compliance costs.
Smith argued the cost differential—SAF currently costs roughly three times conventional jet fuel—would make certain Paris–Beijing, Amsterdam–Shanghai and secondary-city routes uneconomic. Industry lobby Airlines for Europe (A4E) is urging Brussels to adopt a SAF Border-Adjustment Mechanism that would oblige foreign competitors to purchase equivalent SAF credits when selling tickets in the EU.
![EU Sustainable-Fuel Mandate Threatens Nearly Half of China-Bound Flights, Air France-KLM Warns]()
For Chinese corporates and European multinationals alike, the prospect of reduced non-stop capacity could revive the pandemic-era pattern of connections through Doha, Dubai or Istanbul. Travel-management companies should prepare for longer journey times, fewer premium seats and higher fares during Europe–China peak seasons.
China’s aviation authority (CAAC) is watching developments closely; officials have hinted that any unilateral European measures deemed discriminatory could prompt reciprocal carbon-cost requirements on EU carriers operating to China.
Over the longer term, the issue may accelerate joint SAF-research projects between Chinese refiners and European airlines, potentially opening investment opportunities in China’s nascent bio-fuel production base.
Smith argued the cost differential—SAF currently costs roughly three times conventional jet fuel—would make certain Paris–Beijing, Amsterdam–Shanghai and secondary-city routes uneconomic. Industry lobby Airlines for Europe (A4E) is urging Brussels to adopt a SAF Border-Adjustment Mechanism that would oblige foreign competitors to purchase equivalent SAF credits when selling tickets in the EU.
For Chinese corporates and European multinationals alike, the prospect of reduced non-stop capacity could revive the pandemic-era pattern of connections through Doha, Dubai or Istanbul. Travel-management companies should prepare for longer journey times, fewer premium seats and higher fares during Europe–China peak seasons.
China’s aviation authority (CAAC) is watching developments closely; officials have hinted that any unilateral European measures deemed discriminatory could prompt reciprocal carbon-cost requirements on EU carriers operating to China.
Over the longer term, the issue may accelerate joint SAF-research projects between Chinese refiners and European airlines, potentially opening investment opportunities in China’s nascent bio-fuel production base.
Source: Financial Times
