With Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi effectively offline, the Asia-to-Europe market has lost 40 percent of its one-stop seat capacity overnight. Fare-tracking platform Air Traveler Club reports that one-way economy prices on Bangkok- or Hong Kong-London have jumped from under US$1,000 to as high as US$2,700 for travel between 3 and 10 March, while Beijing-London shows only business-class inventory at ¥50,000 (US$7,300). The price shock is amplified by the long-standing ban on Russian overflights for many European carriers, which already forces them onto northerly or southerly detours. Removing the southern Gulf corridor leaves limited alternatives: Istanbul, Singapore and, increasingly, Beijing and Shanghai. Chinese airlines are capitalising on the shift. Air China and China Eastern added ad-hoc frequencies on 4 March and are studying wide-body up-gauges later in the month. Travel agencies in Australia and Southeast Asia say clients are snapping up itineraries that connect via mainland China even if total travel time exceeds 20 hours. Industry precedent during the 2003 Iraq war suggests fare spikes could ease two weeks after airspace re-opens, but post-pandemic aircraft shortages may prolong the squeeze. Mobility managers are advising travellers who can wait to target departures after 18 March, when additional capacity is scheduled to kick in. For companies with urgent travel needs, split-ticketing via Beijing or Shanghai—and factoring in China’s 144-hour visa-free transit—may offer the best combination of availability and manageable cost.
Source: Air Traveler Club
